Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold predicts Nvidia
Analyst Simon Leopold predicts Nvidia could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by fiscal year 2029, following a stock surge on August 27, 2026.
This ambitious forecast comes from Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold, who sees a clear path for the company amid relentless demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips.
Simon Leopold on Nvidia’s revenue potential
Leopold’s revised outlook follows Nvidia’s impressive financial disclosures, significantly raising his price target for the company and underscoring a growing conviction that Nvidia’s dominance in the AI sector is driving unprecedented financial expansion. His projection far surpasses current market consensus, suggesting a substantial upside that Wall Street may be underestimating.
Simon Leopold of Raymond James articulated his high-stakes projection, stating it “seems possible” for Nvidia to hit the $1 trillion mark in annual sales by January 2029. This long-term outlook is underpinned by the enduring strength of demand for Nvidia’s specialised AI hardware, which continues to be the backbone of global AI infrastructure.
To put Leopold’s 2029 projection into perspective, Nvidia’s own guidance for the fiscal year ending January 2028 points to revenue jumping more than 70%, pushing annual sales into the range of $690 billion to $700 billion. Reaching the $1 trillion target from that point would require an additional 43% to 45% growth in fiscal year 2029 alone, a trajectory Leopold believes is attainable.
Leopold’s confidence is reflected in his boosted price target for Nvidia, which he raised by 46% to $515 from $352 following the recent earnings report. This upward revision highlights a deep conviction in the company’s trajectory, especially as its new Vera Rubin chip platform begins production shipments and further cements its market position.
Blockbuster earnings ignite market confidence
Nvidia’s latest earnings report provided the immediate catalyst for this surge in analyst confidence and its soaring market capitalization. The company’s stock saw its largest post-earnings gain since May 2024, rising 8.7% on Thursday and adding $441.5 billion to its value.
This monumental jump pushed Nvidia’s market cap to an impressive $5.49 trillion. It marked the second-largest one-day market-cap gain for any company on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data, reflecting profound investor enthusiasm for Nvidia’s current performance and its future prospects.
Nvidia’s robust financial results and optimistic forecasts alone fueled this investor enthusiasm. Analysts pointed specifically to the company’s strong performance and leadership within its sector, providing the powerful upward momentum seen in its share price.
Strong fiscal 2027 second quarter performance
For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, which concluded on July 26, 2026, Nvidia reported a record $96.2 billion in total revenue. This figure represents an 18% increase from the previous quarter and a substantial 106% jump year-over-year, showcasing accelerated growth.
The data center segment proved to be a powerhouse, contributing $89.0 billion to the total revenue. That’s up an astounding 117% from the prior year, highlighting the insatiable demand for processing power needed for AI applications.
Both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins remained robust at 75.0% for the quarter. Meanwhile, GAAP earnings per diluted share stood at $2.46, with non-GAAP at $2.22, demonstrating strong profitability alongside rapid expansion.
Aggressive fiscal 2028 outlook amid supply constraints
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s outlook remains exceptionally strong, despite global supply chain pressures. The company provided an early projection that its revenue could increase by more than 70% in the fiscal year ending January 2028.
This would translate to annual sales between $690 billion and $700 billion, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. Previous consensus estimates had hovered around 44% to 45% growth for that period, making Nvidia’s updated guidance a pleasant surprise for investors.
Nvidia’s Chief Financial Officer, Colette Kress, acknowledged on an earnings call that the 70% growth guidance actually factored in existing supply tightness. She noted the number would have been even higher without these constraints, underscoring the immense underlying demand for their products.
Kress elaborated on efforts to mitigate these issues, stating, “We are continuing to work vigorously on our supply chain ecosystem to address the incredible demand we see ahead of us.” She expressed full confidence in achieving at least $1 trillion in cumulative Blackwell and Rubin chip revenue from 2025 through calendar 2027, showcasing long-term strategic planning.
AI demand as the growth engine
The bedrock of Nvidia’s continued success is the relentless global demand for AI compute power, which shows no signs of abating. CEO Jensen Huang captured the sentiment on August 26, 2026, stating, “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue. And demand is accelerating.”
Huang also informed analysts that customer demand for compute power currently exceeds Nvidia’s available supply. This makes supply, rather than market appetite, the primary constraint on the company’s growth, a testament to the burgeoning AI industry.
Nvidia’s consistent delivery of strong financial results, even amidst a high-demand, supply-constrained environment, underlines its pivotal role within the evolving technology sector. CEO Jensen Huang noted that customer demand for compute power currently exceeds Nvidia’s available supply, making production capacity, rather than market appetite, the primary constraint on the company’s growth.
The Vera Rubin platform and broadening customer base
Nvidia’s next-generation artificial intelligence chip platform, Vera Rubin, has started production shipments and is now in full production. This new platform is expected to account for approximately one-fifth of Nvidia’s overall data center revenue in the current quarter, which ends in October.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon highlighted Rubin as “the largest impending product cycle” in Nvidia’s history, following its predecessor, Blackwell. This continuous innovation in AI chip technology is crucial for maintaining market leadership and satisfying escalating demand.
Demand for Nvidia’s products is also broadening significantly beyond its initial base of hyperscalers. The company is now seeing increased interest and orders from AI clouds, enterprises, sovereign buyers, and industrial customers, diversifying its revenue streams.
Looking ahead, Nvidia expects demand from AI labs to contribute roughly a quarter of its overall business next year. This expansion into varied customer segments signals a robust and resilient market for its specialized AI processing units.
Analyst consensus shifts as bears retreat
While bullish and bearish investors typically stick to their convictions, TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter believes the latest report has “netted more points” for the bulls. He argues that Nvidia’s stock still looks “materially undervalued” despite its recent surge.
Buchalter sees Nvidia’s early projection of 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028 as “potentially a needed catalyst for the stock” and a “strong signal of confidence in visibility.” This perspective suggests that even with impressive growth, there’s still room for upward revaluation.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider echoes this sentiment, believing Nvidia could “deliver upside” to its fiscal 2028 forecast. He points to continued collaboration with technology companies on data center build-outs as a critical factor in meeting the overwhelming demand for AI infrastructure.
Gross margin outlook and ecosystem investment
Nvidia does anticipate some gross-margin compression for the remainder of the current fiscal year. However, it projects its profit metric to land in the 72% to 73% range for the next fiscal year, which is still a strong showing, albeit lower than recent peak levels.
Buchalter noted that this guidance range looks “better than worst-case scenarios,” especially given rising memory-chip prices and growing competition from custom chip programs. This suggests the company is effectively managing cost pressures while maintaining profitability.
Moreover, Bernstein’s Rasgon pointed out that Nvidia’s balance sheet is becoming “as much of a moat as their technology.” The company isn’t just securing customer agreements for hundreds of billions of dollars worth of products through equity stakes and revenue-sharing deals.
It’s also strategically using its financial strength to “support and grow the ecosystem around their products,” solidifying its long-term competitive advantage. This investment in the broader AI ecosystem creates a virtuous cycle, driving further demand for Nvidia’s core offerings.
The AI factories and future outlook
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, consistently refers to the ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure as the “buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” This vision underscores the scale and ambition of the company’s mission.
These “AI factories” are not merely data centers; they are complex computational hubs designed to accelerate the development and deployment of artificial intelligence across virtually every industry. Nvidia’s chips are the fundamental building blocks of these factories.
The company’s strategic investments and continuous innovation in platforms like Vera Rubin position it to capitalize on this massive shift. With demand continuing to outstrip supply, Nvidia appears poised for sustained, significant growth in the years to come.
While reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2029 would be an extraordinary feat, the latest financial results and analyst upgrades suggest it’s no longer just a hypothetical. For Nvidia, the future of AI looks increasingly profitable, solidifying its role as a critical enabler of the new intelligent era.