Rami’s Recommendations: UFC 289, Edwards vs. Campos, and PFL 4
Welcome to the second edition of Rami’s Recommendations! While my first edition covered a lot, this time I’ll be focusing on just three fights from two events and a championship boxing match. I’m most excited for these matchups: UFC 289 vs. Edwards, Campos vs. Edwards, and the fourth fight card of the 2023 season for the Professional Fighters League.
The PFL’s fourth episode of the 2023 season is set to air on ESPN/ESPN+ and will feature 12 thrilling bouts. Unfortunately, there have been six fights canceled in the past month due to fighters failing drug tests. However, I have identified three fights that I believe you can make good money off of.
PFL FEATURED PRELIM BOUT: MARLON MORAES VS GABRIEL ALVES BRAGA
The magic that Marlon Moraes held in his power has yet to make an appearance and has resulted in a 6-fight losing streak for the Brazilian who signed with the PFL in 2022 after being cut from the UFC and contemplating retirement from MMA. Moraes’ last win was in 2019 when he defeated Jose Aldo at UFC 245 by split decision. Since then he’s been defeated by Cory Sandhagen, Rob Font, Merab Dvalishvili, and Song Yadong before heading to the PFL where he has lost to Sheymon Moraes and Brendan Loughnane. Moraes enters another battle that many don’t expect him to walk out of this with a win to break his 4-year losing streak.
The undefeated Brazilian (10-0) Gabriel Alves Braga is still in search of his best version, believing that evolution is constant and he’ll reach the top soon. This will be his second contest in a row that’s against a former UFC fighter and with his last four victories coming by decision, the gritty and vicious Braga will look to make this a big mismatch for the former UFC title contender in his attempt to further prove that he is the future of the featherweights in the PFL.
Braga comes into this as the favorite (-350) and why wouldn’t he, he’s been a step ahead of every opponent he’s faced so far in his career. Moraes is the underdog going into this bout (+250) and it looks like it’ll take a miracle magic shot to get him out of the 6-fight losing streak he’s had for 4-years running. Despite Braga only having 4 finishes in his 10 wins, it could grow to 5 if Braga decides he doesn’t want to make it 5 decision wins in his last 5 bouts. I will be going with Braga by way of a TKO finish in under two rounds.
PFL CO-MAIN EVENT BOUT: MOVLID KHAIBULAEV VS. TYLER DIAMOND
Tyler Diamond has learned a lot since being on The Ultimate Fighter in 2018 as part of season 27. The losses he suffered both in an exhibition bout and the TUF Finale against Bryce Mitchell allowed Diamond to take the pressure off his shoulders by losing his undefeated streak to push him into seeing what makes him who he is. Diamond made his way to the LFA and in his first event, he headlined and won against the then-undefeated Jon Neal at LFA 66 in 2019 prior to signing with the PFL two years later where he would win his debut against Sung Bin Jo by decision in 2021 before losing to Brendan Loughnane which also resulted in an injury for Diamond and has now led him to the door of his opponent who has never tasted defeat in his MMA career.
The “Killer” Movlid Khaybulaev not only holds an undefeated record of 20-0-1, but he also holds wins over three fighters on this card, those men being Ryoji Kudo, Chris Wade, and Brendan Loughnane whom Khaybulaev defeated by way of a decision. Khaybulaev looks to continue his train of domination and what better way of adding to it than by giving the 32-year-old Diamond a tough night against one of the top featherweights in the world, a 20-fight win-streak is hard to go against and as Diamond said this week “In order to beat Movlid, I can’t let him dictate the pace of the fight. He does a very good job of getting into his dominant positions and doing just enough to secure rounds.”
Khaybulaev is the massive favorite (-800) coming into this co-main event bout, many expect his undefeated streak to stay intact with another dominant victory whereas Diamond will step into this as a big underdog (+550) who will have to shut up the naysayers that are already counting him out before the weigh-in and octagon door closes. I believe Diamond will put up a willing challenge, however, it’s not going to be enough for Khaybulaev who will plan to smother his opponent and take the victory. Khaybulaev by way of a decision.
PFL MAIN EVENT: BRENDAN LOUGHNANE VS JESUS PINEDO
The main event many will be looking forward to and that’s because Brendan Loughnane plans to walk into this and rack up the winning streak to 6 in a row. The winner of the 2022 PFL Featherweight season and a million dollars has yet to deal with any shenanigans after kicking off the regular season with a 2nd round victory against Marlon Moraes on April 1st of this year. In his PFL career, Loughnane is 9-1 with 3 victories coming by way of a finish and 6 being from going the distance in dominating fashion. This will also be the 2nd main event in a row for Loughnane since defeating Bubba Jenkins in the co-main event of the PFL 2022 Championships. The 27-4 English fighter has made a major change since losing to Movlid Khaybulaev two years ago and does not plan to stop the momentum anytime soon.
The PFL debut of Peru’s Jesus Pinedo vs. Gabriel Alves Braga did not go the way he expected it to and with his second bout coming up against the winner of the 2022 PFL Featherweight championship, the odds are once again against Pinedo who will look to bring back the power he had following his release from the UFC. Pinedo went on to rack up 4 wins in a row before signing with the PFL. Pinedo was asked how he feels going into this bout against Loughnane and his answer was simple, Pinedo said he knows that he needs to finish his opponent if he wants a chance to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Prior to the loss vs. Braga, Pinedo’s 4 fight win streak all came by way of a TKO finish via punches. This will be the first main event in his PFL career.
Jesus Pinedo’s underdog status continues (+400) walking into this against the PFL vet Brendan Loughnane who is the favorite (-520) for the third time in a row in his PFL run. Loughnane will have to play it carefully coming into this one as I believe the power Pinedo holds can make a dramatic impact and put the 2022 PFL Featherweight champion to sleep for the first time in their career. The rookie looks to defeat the vet, however, I will be ruling in favor of Loughnane walking out of this with his 6th win in a row via stoppage.
MAIN EVENT FOR THE IBF WORLD FLYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: SUNNY EDWARDS VS. ANDRES CAMPOS
Sunny Edwards is an incredibly talented boxer with the potential to become one of the top pound-for-pound stars in the world. His exceptional footwork was on full display when he won the IBF world flyweight title against Moruti Mthalane two years ago, cementing his status as a must-see fighter. Despite being up against an undefeated opponent in Campos, who has recently won a fight by stoppage, Edwards will undoubtedly prove to be his toughest challenge yet. It’s clear that the Chilean fighter will struggle to keep up with Edwards’ superior skills, and while Edwards may not be known for his power, he still has the ability to inflict significant damage on his opponents, as demonstrated in his win over Jayson Mama, who was knocked down in the tenth round.
According to the odds, Sunny Edwards is considered the clear favorite with a 1/16 chance of winning. This means that a bet of £32 would only win £2 plus the initial stake. On the other hand, Adres Campos has an 8/1 chance of winning, so a bet of £10 could potentially win £80 in addition to the stake. I will be betting on Edwards to retain the gold by decision, I don’t believe a finish comes out of this main event for the IBF World Flyweight Championship.
The UFC’s return to Canada has been long awaited by fans from the North. The greatest female fighter returns to defend her throne against a fresh new opponent on weeks’ notice. Two lightweight contenders look to be next in line for the championship in the near future and a huge banger between a train and 50K could lead to big things for the featherweight division. Here are the three fights you should be making money off of at UFC 289 in Vancouver.
MAIN CARD BOUT: DAN IGE VS NATE LANDWEHR
The train looks to make another stop for a fight, this time it’ll be in the North which also marks the first fight in Nate Landwehr’s career where he fights in Canada. In his last 5, Landwehr has gone 4-1 with his last three fights going his way and earning him a performance bonus from the UFC. Since 2021, he has added one win each year and made sure to leave it all on the line when he steps foot in the octagon whether it’s in front of an empty crowd at the Apex or in front of the thousands of diehard UFC fans who look forward to seeing the Train derail another opponents’ plan to walk away with the win. The 34-year-old Landwehr has looked amazing in his last three fights and will look to push that up a notch when he plans to make 50K by defeating Mr. 50K himself this Saturday in Vancouver.
Dan Ige was able to break his losing streak of 3 straight after knocking out Damon Jackson with a left hook in the co-main event in January of this year. The Featherweight division has been a big test for Ige who has spent the last 4 years learning from his losses against Chan Sung Jung, Josh Emmett, and Movsar Evloev to get back the power that has proven to be a huge factor for him in the UFC and the division. Prior to the losses, Ige made his way into the Ultimate Fighting Championship after submitting Luis Gomez by way of a rear-naked choke on the Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. Ige lost his UFC debut to Julio Arce at UFC 220, returned at UFC 225, and built up a 6-fight win streak which included a big win over UFC vet Edson Barboza in 2020. Ige will look to keep his nickname alive by earning a performance bonus against the Train.
Landwehr is back on the underdogs’ side (+178) coming into this incoming banger. Ige is the favorite for his second fight in a row (-215) and both men will look to end this before they get to the judges’ scorecards and put their fate in the hands of some recently untrustworthy people. I’ll have to take the Train in this contest, it looks like any time he is on the receiving end of a beating, he finds a way to take the win and a big bonus to go back home with. Landwehr in under three rounds.
CO-MAIN EVENT BOUT: BENEIL DARIUSH VS CHARLES OLIVEIRA
Charles Oliveira makes his first appearance since losing to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 for the vacant Lightweight Championship. Prior to the loss, it took 5 years before anyone was able to hand Oliveira another loss after he racked up an 11-fight win streak against the likes of Clay Guida, Jim Miller, Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. He won the vacant Lightweight title against Chandler at UFC 262, and defended it successfully against Poirier at UFC 269, but was stripped after missing weight against Gaethje at UFC 274. Oliveira has been scheduled to fight his next opponent Beneil Dariush, but those two bouts have seen cancellations in 2020 and earlier this year. Thankfully (and hopefully) this will not end up being another canceled fight for both men where they can prove to the other who is the better fighter and who should get a crack at Makhachev’s Lightweight championship later this year.
Benny the Bull has been storming his way through the competition for the last couple of years in the UFC’s Lightweight division. 2018 was the last time Dariush tasted defeat and since then, his wins have been big and important against the likes of Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, Tony Ferguson, and Mateusz Gamrot. Dariush is on an 8-fight win streak, his canceled bouts against Oliveira have only fueled him to continue his domination until the UFC finds the perfect card to book these two, and now that it’s here, Benny vs. do Bronx is a great match for both men who want to be the one to take away the UFC Lightweight championship from the king of the division, Islam Makhachev. Benny was scheduled to face Makhachev last year, but an ankle injury forced Dariush out of the bout. A win over the former champion and the last man to be defeated by the current king of the division would boost Dariush into the title picture and earn him his first shot at greatness.
Oliveira enters this fight for a second time as the underdog (+115), when he fought the champion Makhachev, he came into it as a +165 underdog. Benny will be entering this fight as the favorite (-135), his first time being the favorite since 2021 when he went on a 7-fight streak of being the favorite heading into his 7-fight win streak. It has been three years since Benny finished an opponent and if he wants to walk away with a title shot, he more than likely will be looking for the finish or the control on the ground to prevent any surprises from Oliveira. I have Oliveira winning by decision, but I would not be surprised if a finish comes at any time.
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP MAIN EVENT: AMANDA NUNES VS. IRENE ALDANA
The greatest female fighter in MMA history is back once again to defend her throne, this time against another Mexican warrior who will look to be the second woman to take away the women’s Bantamweight championship from Amanda Nunes. The champion Nunes has successfully defended her crown against the greats such as Valentina Shevchenko, Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Holly Holm. Prior to losing her gold against Julianna Pena, Nunes was on a 12-fight win streak from 2015-2021. She is a two-weight class champion and is widely considered the greatest female fighter of all time. The Lioness will look to continue her domination this Saturday in Vancouver before she eventually decides enough is enough and hangs up the gloves after a historical career in MMA.
Irene Aldana is the same age as her opponent (35) and this will be her first time challenging for a UFC championship. After signing with the UFC at 6-2, the Mexican Aldana lost her first two fights in the UFC before turning things around and building up her resume against the likes of Bethe Correia, Ketlen Vieira, and Yana Santos to earn her first crack at the gold. The UFC currently has two fighters who are also champions and are Mexican, if Aldana is able to do the unthinkable and hand a loss to the legendary Nunes, it will mark the first time ever that the UFC has three Mexican-born champions in their organization.
Aldana comes into this as the underdog (+260) for the fifth time in her UFC career. Aldana is 1-3 when she is the underdog, her only win being against Yana Santos. Nunes’s record of being the favorite is 9-1, she comes into this at a -300 and plans to walk out of Canada and still the UFC Women’s Bantamweight champion. I have Nunes winning by stoppage, more than likely will happen in under 4.5 rounds.
Thank you for reading the second edition of Rami’s Recommendations. If you decide to place any bets, please do so safely and responsibly. I’ll return next month with the third edition, which will feature UFC 290 and two other events happening that week. Have a safe weekend and I look forward to seeing you next time.
By Rami Hanna