Dern vs Ribas 2: Expert Predictions and Betting Insights for UFC Fight Night

The UFC is kicking off 2025 with a bang. On Saturday night, Dern vs Ribas takes center stage as Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas meet again in a rematch at UFC Fight Night, headlining the event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims warming things up at 4 p.m. ET.

This fight is a pivotal one for both athletes. Dern is ranked No. 7 in the strawweight division and is coming off a much-needed win against Loopy Godínez in August. That victory ended a two-fight losing streak and gave her some momentum heading into this rematch.

Ribas, sitting at No. 8 in the rankings, hasn’t been as active. Her last fight was a close split-decision loss to former champ Rose Namajunas back in March. Even though she lost, Ribas showcased her skills and toughness. Now, she’s ready to prove herself against a familiar foe.

This isn’t the first time these two have fought. Their first clash happened in 2019, with Ribas winning by unanimous decision. Four years later, both fighters have grown, and the stakes feel even higher.

To understand how this fight might play out, MMA coach John Wood and ESPN betting analyst Ian Parker shared their insights on the matchup—and a few other fights on the card.

Main Event Spotlight: Dern vs. Ribas

Mackenzie Dern’s Path to Victory

If you’ve watched Mackenzie Dern fight, you know her game plan: get the fight to the ground. She’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist and one of the best grapplers in the division. Her striking isn’t as polished, but it’s still dangerous because she throws with power and aggression.

According to coach John Wood, Dern’s greatest weapon is her relentlessness. She’s the kind of fighter who’ll take punches, walk through them, and keep pushing forward until she gets her takedown. In this fight, it’s going to be all about persistence. If she can drag Ribas to the mat, that’s where she’ll have the advantage.

Amanda Ribas’s Game Plan

Amanda Ribas, on the other hand, has a more balanced skill set. She’s a black belt in both judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, making her capable on the ground, but her real edge is her striking. She’s quick, precise, and technically sound.

Ribas’s biggest challenge will be avoiding the takedowns. In the smaller cage at the UFC Apex, there’s less room to maneuver, so she’ll need to stay on her toes and keep moving. If she can keep the fight standing, Ribas has a great chance to outstrike Dern and control the fight.

The X-Factor: It’s a Five-Round Fight

This rematch is scheduled for five rounds, which could make all the difference. Longer fights tend to favor grapplers like Dern because they wear their opponents down over time. Ribas has to stay sharp for 25 minutes, which is a tall order when someone like Dern is constantly coming at you.

What the Experts Think

John Wood’s Prediction: Dern wins by decision. He believes Ribas won’t be able to fend off the takedowns for the full five rounds, especially as the fight progresses and fatigue sets in.

Ian Parker’s Take: Ribas wins (-190). Parker sees Ribas as the more versatile fighter and thinks her striking will expose Dern’s weaknesses, especially in the later rounds when Dern’s stand-up gets sloppy.

Source: UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Dern vs. Ribas 2

Best Bets on the Card

The main event isn’t the only fight worth watching—or betting on. Here’s a breakdown of a few other matchups to keep an eye on:

Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov (Middleweight)

This is an interesting clash of styles. Curtis is a counterstriker who relies on precision and timing, while Kopylov brings high-volume pressure that can overwhelm opponents. Curtis has a strong chin, so it’s unlikely he’ll get knocked out, but his low output could make it hard for him to keep up with Kopylov’s pace.

Betting Pick: Kopylov to win by KO/TKO or decision. If you want a safer bet, Parker recommends combining the two methods to cover both outcomes.

Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden (Lightweight)

Thiago Moises has a strong submission game, but his recent performances have been inconsistent. He’s only won one of his last three fights, and his durability has been questioned after a recent TKO loss. Trey Ogden, meanwhile, is a rising fighter with solid cardio and well-rounded skills.

Betting Pick: Ogden to win (+165). He’s the underdog here, but Parker thinks he has the tools to keep the fight competitive and take over as it goes on.

Fatima Kline vs. Viktoriia Dudakova (Strawweight)

Both fighters are young prospects looking to bounce back from their first career losses. Kline has shown resilience and skill, while Dudakova’s cardio issues have been a concern. If Kline can survive the early flurry from Dudakova, she should be able to take control in the later rounds.Betting Pick: Kline to win by decision. Parker sees this as a clear opportunity for Kline to showcase her durability and outlast Dudakova.

What to Watch For

This UFC Fight Night card has a little bit of everything—high-stakes matchups, exciting prospects, and a compelling main event rematch. For Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, this fight is a chance to prove they belong among the best in the division. Dern is out to avenge her previous loss, while Ribas aims to cement her position as a top contender.

For fans and bettors, the card offers plenty of intrigue. Will Dern’s relentless takedown attempts pay off? Can Ribas keep her composure and pick Dern apart on the feet? And what about the other rising stars on the card—who will make a statement?

One thing’s for sure: UFC Fight Night is kicking off 2025 in style. Grab your snacks, place your bets, and settle in for what promises to be an action-packed night of fights.

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