CryptoQuant confirms Bitcoin bear market may end

Bitcoin’s prolonged downturn may finally be drawing to a close, as several critical on-chain signals, historically observed near market bottoms, have recently activated. This crucial development suggests the crypto bear market is entering its final stages, according to analysis from various firms including CryptoQuant and Glassnode.

These indicators, which track investor behavior and asset valuation directly on the blockchain, provide a deeper look beyond daily price fluctuations. They offer a comprehensive perspective on market health as the leading cryptocurrency continues to experience mixed price action. CryptoQuant confirmed new data on Saturday, July 18, underlining this potential shift.

crossover of short-term and long-term holder costs

A significant indicator suggesting the end of a bear market phase is the rare crossover where the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis falls below that of Long-Term Holders (LTH). This signal occurred after a required three-day confirmation window concluded on July 18, 2026. STH are investors holding Bitcoin for less than six months, while LTH have held for over half a year.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes this historically marks the beginning of the final phase of a Bitcoin bear market, preceding a new bull cycle. However, it doesn’t signify an immediate end to the downturn itself. The STH cost basis notably dropped from approximately $112,500 to around $69,000 over a nine-month period, moving below the active LTH cost basis.

This substantial decrease suggests a consistent trend of newer market participants buying Bitcoin at lower prices throughout the recent market slump. Such persistent dip buying, driving down the average acquisition cost for short-term holders, often precedes major trend reversals and positions the asset for a potential flip in market sentiment.

MVRV z-score approaches accumulation zone

The Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score) also reinforces the view that Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom. This metric assesses if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market price to its realized value, which accounts for the price when each coin last moved.

Historically, bear market bottoms coincided with this indicator falling to or below zero. These market dynamics often set the stage for broader crypto market shifts.

This pattern was seen in 2011–2012, 2014, late 2018, and late 2022, each instance paving the way for a subsequent bull market. As of June 8, 2026, the MVRV Z-Score was 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the historical accumulation zone. By June 21, 2026, it had edged up slightly to around 0.35.

While it hasn’t yet hit the “below zero” territory that often signals the absolute bottom, this proximity suggests the asset remains significantly undervalued. Buying Bitcoin when the MVRV Z-score enters the lower green band has historically delivered outsized returns. The current reading points to a potential rebound, though the absolute bottom is still unconfirmed.

STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV convergence

Further supporting this outlook is the convergence between the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) and Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV). This specific alignment has historically signaled cyclical bottoms, as observed in 2015, 2019, and 2022. It’s a key sign of market maturation.

On June 8, 2026, the STH-MVRV stood at 0.84, while the LTH-MVRV remained elevated at 1.29. This disparity indicates that long-term holders still retain substantial unrealized profits, suggesting continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value despite prevailing market pressures. A true convergence would signal a stronger bottom.

puell multiple signals miner capitulation

The Puell Multiple offers another crucial perspective, focusing on Bitcoin miner profitability. This metric divides the daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin by its 365-day moving average, effectively measuring miner revenue against its annual performance. Readings below 0.5 typically indicate miner capitulation and coincide with cyclical lows in BTC price.

Glassnode data shows five prior instances of extended visits to this critical zone: 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022. As of July 14, 2026, the Puell Multiple hovers just above 0.5, having been near 0.66 on July 12, 2026. Such market conditions often coincide with broader shifts in capital allocation, including outflows from other sectors.

This current positioning, while close, hasn’t decisively entered the historical bottom zone, implying that the final low might still be ahead. The indicator is approaching the historical bottom zone, but its decisive entry into that territory is still pending.

Analyst PositiveCrypto observed on X that this setup, where daily miner revenue is significantly below its yearly average, “has always appeared at late bear market lows.” He noted that while painful for miners due to margin compression, “historically these are levels where BTC returns are greatest from.” This dynamic often drives smaller, less efficient miners out of the market, reducing selling pressure from their operations.

aSOPR and realized losses indicate selling exhaustion

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) provides additional insight into market sentiment by tracking whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. This metric filters out transactions within one hour, giving a clearer picture of aggregate investor behavior. It helps determine if moved coins are being sold above or below their acquisition price.

A raw aSOPR reading below 1.0 means that, on average, moved coins are realizing losses. On July 12, 2026, Glassnode’s public reading for raw aSOPR was 0.972, which is below the break-even level of 1.0. This indicates that a majority of transactions were occurring at a loss for sellers.

Back on February 15, 2026, the Bitcoin aSOPR had already dipped toward the 0.92–0.94 zone, levels historically associated with significant bear market stress points. These sustained losses suggest weaker hands are being flushed out of the market, a necessary cleansing process before a sustained recovery can take hold.

Bitcoin’s current trading price near $62,600 as of July 14, 2026, is roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. This substantial correction highlights the extent of this downturn, as many holders are selling below their initial purchase price.

stabilizing realized losses for long-term holders

Glassnode also points to the stabilization of realized losses among Bitcoin holders who acquired their assets one to two years ago. This observation covers a study period from July 2024 to July 2025, offering a critical signal for the market’s distribution phase and potential turning point.

Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, emphasizes this as an essential indicator for identifying a possible market bottom. A lasting reversal in this trend would signal a progressive exhaustion of selling pressure. This suggests long-term investors are increasingly unwilling to sell at current prices, preferring to hold and await a recovery.

bitcoin’s path forward and market psychology

The convergence of these multiple on-chain signals paints a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin. While no single indicator guarantees an immediate reversal, their collective message points to the current market downturn being in its final stages. This presents a critical juncture for investors, particularly those focused on underlying network health.

The consistent dip buying by short-term holders, coupled with stabilizing losses among long-term investors, implies a shift in market psychology. There’s a growing cohort willing to accumulate Bitcoin at these reduced prices, absorbing the remaining selling pressure. This paves the way for more stable market conditions.

For a definitive bullish confirmation under a comprehensive three-indicator on-chain model—which includes aSOPR, Puell Multiple, and Reserve Risk—the aSOPR needs to move above zero on the rebased chart. This is equivalent to the raw metric reclaiming 1.0, signaling that Bitcoin holders are again spending coins at an aggregate profit.

This eventual shift could propel Bitcoin towards new institutional interest and valuations, but caution remains justified until then. The underlying data suggests increasing market stability.