Christian Lopez warns crypto IPOs face 75% trading volume drop in 2026
Christian Lopez, head of blockchain and digital assets at Cohen & Company Capital Markets, warns that the market for crypto initial public offerings (IPOs) has entered a period of sharp decline. Capital is rotating into artificial intelligence and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on risk appetite. He identified a liquidity event last October as the turning point that drained essential capital from the digital asset ecosystem.
Retail investors who once drove activity in the crypto markets have largely redirected their focus toward artificial intelligence (AI) and the tech giants of the “Mag 7.”
Macroeconomic headwinds and central bank pressure
This shift has significantly cooled the environment for new listings, as reflected by the plummeting of crypto trading volumes, which have dropped approximately 75% in 2026 as of May. Christian Lopez noted that investors have become increasingly hesitant to back new public offerings due to fears regarding lack of support in the aftermarket.
Global economic uncertainty remains a primary obstacle for firms considering a U.S. listing. Christian Lopez explained that uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve interest rate paths has made investors particularly cautious toward high-beta assets such as crypto. While some market signals point toward a potential deflationary environment that could support future rate cuts, immediate global pressures are proving difficult to ignore.
Central bank actions have further complicated the landscape for digital assets. Global markets are currently navigating deleveraging trends, including recent moves by the Bank of Japan to defend the yen. This broader environment of risk aversion has contributed to institutional outflows.
In late June 2026, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since September 2024, at one point marking a decline of more than 50% from the previous year’s high of approximately $126,000. Such volatility has made Bitcoin price drops and AI capital diversion a central theme for the 2026 fiscal cycle.
Delayed crypto IPO pipeline and market sentiment
The combination of soft trading volumes and disappointing post-listing outcomes has prompted several major firms to put their plans on hold. Payward, the parent company of the Kraken exchange, has reportedly frozen its multibillion-dollar IPO plan, while Ethereum app builder Consensys has pushed its potential debut to the fall.
Other significant delays include wallet provider Ledger and asset manager Grayscale, both of which are waiting for market conditions to stabilize.
Recent public debuts have offered little encouragement to those waiting in the wings. BitGo (BTGO) shares fell 13% on their second day of trading, highlighting the struggle for momentum in the current climate.
According to research, eight publicly listed crypto companies have lost an average of 73% from their post-IPO highs, including Bullish (BLSH) and Circle (CRCL). Despite these hurdles, some firms continue to move forward; both Blockchain.com and FalconX filed confidential paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May 2026.
Regulatory clarity versus access to capital
Christian Lopez argues that the traditional narrative of regulatory hurdles is no longer the chief concern for established companies. “For companies like Bullish, Circle or BitGo, it’s more about access to capital than regulation,” Lopez stated, noting that firms successfully went public even before clear rules were in place.
While Clarity Act developments and federal rules remain relevant, they are currently secondary to the fundamental need for liquidity.
Diversification is now viewed as the key to surviving public markets. Kraken’s recent efforts to expand beyond simple trading reflect a broader industry trend toward building multi-faceted businesses. Lopez maintains that becoming a diversified entity rather than a single-purpose crypto business better positions a firm to attract cautious institutional buyers.
This is particularly important as the “long tail” of smaller, single-utility cryptocurrencies is expected to tighten significantly over the next three to five years.
Institutional adoption continues amid funding freeze
Despite the current IPO stall, blockchain infrastructure is becoming more deeply embedded within traditional finance. Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are moving ahead with blockchain-based infrastructure projects. The industry is actively shifting toward near-instant settlement (T+0), a transition that Lopez believes will ultimately favor infrastructure providers over companies tied to individual tokens.
Stablecoin infrastructure is also seeing structural growth through initiatives like the OpenUSD network, which now involves more than 140 financial institutions and payments firms. As Brian Armstrong has warned, the traditional financial sector must adapt to on-chain solutions to remain efficient.
This long-term adoption suggests that while the IPO window may stay closed through the remainder of 2026, the underlying technology is establishing a more permanent foothold in the global financial system.
Market analysts do not expect a meaningful reopening for crypto listings until 2027. This outlook is tied to expectations that the current Bitcoin market cycle could bottom around October 2026. Historically, the broader digital asset market tends to follow the performance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Until the macro cloud lifts and capital stops rotating so heavily into the AI sector, the crypto IPO pipeline is likely to remain in its current state of suspended animation.