Canelo vs Charlo PPV Buys Estimate: A Detailed Breakdown Of The Indicators To Show What This Fight Could Do

At the time of writing this, probably nobody knows how many pay-per-view buys Saturday’s fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo has done.

This article will attempt to predict the Canelo vs Charlo PPV Buys by comparing numbers on different metrics to other PPV fights in the US and the buys they have achieved.

This isn’t an exact science and a prediction may be well out but the only other time we have tried this was Spence Crawford and NoSmokeSport’s prediction between 600-700k was as accurate as you can get.

Comparisons will be made to other Showtime PPVs where buy rates are somewhat accepted. Spence Crawford 650k, Tank Garcia 1.2m, Canelo Plant 750k, Benavidez Plant 150k.

All Access

Canelo vs Charlo

Episode 1: 2.5m views

Episode 2: 2m views

Spence vs Crawford

Episode 1: 2.5M Views

Episode 2: 2.4M Views

Davis vs Garcia

Episode 1: 5.9 M Views

Episode 2: 3.9M View

Plant vs Benavidez

Episode 1: 1.8M Views

Canelo vs Plant

Episode 1: 2.8M Views

Episode 2: 2.6M Views

All Access numbers for Canelo vs Charlo fall at around 5/6 of the two Canelo-Plant episodes and around 91% of Spence Crawford. There is limited English in Canelo’s feature in all accesses which audiences are obviously aware of. Canelo Charlo falls below a 750k buy PPV by under 20% and a 650k buy PPV by just under 10%.

Press Conference

Numerous outlets covered the press conference. This comparison will only look into long-form versions of the top 5 most viewed videos from the news conference and will have two separate categories: launch press conferences and final press conferences.

Launch Press Conference

Canelo vs Charlo: 1.64m

Davis vs Garcia: 5.6m

Spence vs Crawford: 1.8m

Benavidez vs Plant: ~500k

Canelo vs Plant: 2.8m

Final Press Conference

Canelo vs Charlo: ~1m

Davis vs Garcia: 3.5m

Spence vs Crawford: 1.5m

Benavidez vs Plant: 1.6m

Canelo vs Plant: 1.5m

The expected war of words was far more significant in Benavidez Plant and Davis Garcia. The Canelo-Charlo launch press conference had little back and forth and there was limited interest in the fight week press conference. The numbers continue to fall below Spence Crawford and Canelo Plant.

Social Media Interaction/Clips

Top 5 Clips/Shorts From YouTube

Canelo vs Charlo: 4m

Davis vs Garcia: 13.7m

Spence vs Crawford: 5.9m

Benavidez vs Plant: 1.9m

Canelo vs Plant: 10.8m

There were no viral moments in the Canelo Charlo promotion which could be capitalised on compared to Canelo Plant which had the famous slap and the aggressive Davis Garcia face-to-face.

Highest Viewed Instagram Clip Relating To The Fight From Fighters + Broadcaster

Canelo vs Charlo: 23.6m

Davis vs Garcia: 34.3m

Spence vs Crawford: 5.7m

Benavidez vs Plant: 1.8m

Canelo vs Plant: 17.5m

Canelo’s superstardom should not be underestimated, a single Canelo Instagram video reached over 20m people on the week of Canelo vs Charlo.

Weigh-In

Canelo vs Charlo: 1.3m

Davis vs Garcia: 3.5m

Spence vs Crawford: 1.9m

Benavidez vs Plant: ~500k

Canelo vs Plant: 3.7m

The Canelo vs Plant weigh-in was far more heated than the others explaining it outperforming its counterparts.

Other Key Factors

Canelo vs Charlo received plenty of promotion via ESPN and popular talk shows on which Alvarez and Charlo appeared including ‘The Breakfast Club’. The pair both joined Sports Center on fight week as well.

Whilst social and digital numbers may be smaller for this fight, more traditional media was maximised.

Canelo vs Charlo PPV Buys Prediction

There are outliers but for the most part, Canelo-Charlo failed to perform as well as expected for a fight of this magnitude based on the metrics. Fight fans were aware the build-up for this fight would be lacklustre and nothing impressive.

Canelo has a huge fanbase and that is important to factor in as well as the Undisputed vs Undisputed sell, and the Hispanic and Black American fanbases.

However, Canelo’s stardom has been rumoured to be plummeting ever since his shock loss to Dmitry Bivol with underwhelming PPV numbers reported for his fights with GGG and Ryder, so it is possible that the low build-up numbers are representative of the fading interest in the Mexican.

Many fights have had huge buzz this year but Canelo-Charlo just didn’t have that super fight feel whether that’s down to the weight, promotion, date or interest in Canelo. NoSmokeSport.com predicts the Canelo vs Charlo PPV buys at 600k based on a detailed analysis of the above listed and other metrics.

By NoSmokeSport

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