Visa forecasts 2.4% global economy growth, driven by AI and digital commerce
Global Economy Growth is at the centre of this story. The global economy is projected to expand by 2.4% this year, according to the latest insights from Visa, unveiled in its 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook. This anticipated growth, detailed in the report released on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, is largely powered by a significant upswing in business investments. Crucially, artificial intelligence (AI) and the continuing surge of digital commerce are identified as primary catalysts.
Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa Inc., highlighted these dual drivers. He noted that business investment is rising sharply as companies commit capital to AI infrastructure, clean energy initiatives, and the strengthening of supply chains. This industrial investment cycle is described as the strongest since 2010, marking a pivotal period for global economic resilience.
Global Economy Growth: Visa projects 2.4% global economic growth in 2026
The 2.4% global economy growth forecast by Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) signals a robust if tempered performance. This outlook comes amidst a backdrop where consumers globally are actively seeking value to manage their budgets, a trend that helps keep inflationary pressures in check.
Mr. Best observed that consumers are “finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check.” This adaptability in spending habits, rather than a sharp retreat, is underpinning much of the economic activity that businesses can capitalise on with targeted strategies.
Digital commerce boosts peripheral city economies
One of the most compelling trends highlighted in the VBEI report is the dramatic rise of digital commerce, particularly in smaller, what Visa terms “peripheral,” cities. Online shopping penetration in these areas has surged from approximately 31% before the pandemic to an impressive 56% by the first quarter of 2026. This nearly doubles the pre-pandemic rate.
The analysis, which examined nearly 600 cities, shows a clear shift in purchasing behaviour. While “core cities” maintain a mid-to-high 80% range for card-not-present transactions, the rapid acceleration in places like Fujairah, Annecy, and San Juan underscores a decentralisation of online economic activity.
This expansion of online purchasing acts as a critical relief valve for prices. With more opportunities for price comparison and deal-seeking behaviour, retailers face increased competition. This, in turn, makes it harder for them to sustain significant price increases, a dynamic that benefits consumers navigating persistent inflation. Companies like TFI International have shown how strategic market positioning can lead to valuation rises.
Unprecedented industrial investment cycle fuels expansion
Beyond consumer spending, a substantial wave of industrial investment is providing a powerful tailwind to global economic growth. Visa’s report indicates that the United States, European Union, and China—which together account for three-quarters of global demand—have entered a strong industrial investment cycle.
This cycle, described as the strongest since 2010, is heavily concentrated in technology-driven initiatives. Companies are pouring capital into building out advanced AI infrastructure, accelerating the transition to clean energy sources, and fortifying strategic supply chains to enhance resilience.
Wayne Best underscored this, stating, “We’re also seeing business investment rising sharply, with companies building out AI, clean energy and stronger supply chains at levels we haven’t seen since 2010—a trend that is helping support global growth.” Hyperscaler capital expenditure alone is on track to exceed $690 billion in 2026, illustrating the scale of this investment push.
AI’s economic impact and early stages
Despite the massive investments, the productivity benefits of AI adoption haven’t fully materialised in conventional economic output data just yet. Visa economists caution that companies are still in the costly early stages of integrating AI into their operations.
However, the expectation is that redesigned business processes stemming from these AI investments will ultimately lead to significant long-term productivity gains. The slow pace of these benefits means businesses should carefully consider their capital allocation towards new technologies.
Consumers adapt amid persistent inflationary pressures
The report characterises the current consumer spending pattern as one of “adjustment rather than collapse,” a notable difference from the sharper pullbacks observed during the 2022 inflation shock. Consumers are demonstrating resilience, prioritising value and seeking deals rather than cutting back entirely on discretionary spending.
But the economic landscape isn’t without its hurdles. Inflationary pressures persist, particularly affecting energy costs. For businesses, especially smaller ones, monitoring and managing these rising operational costs will be crucial for maintaining profitability.
Food prices are also expected to continue their upward trajectory into the latter half of 2026. Experts project they could peak in the fourth quarter of this year, primarily due to ongoing fertiliser-linked cost pressures. This will further challenge household budgets and necessitate continued adaptive spending behaviours.
Outlook and strategic imperatives for businesses
Looking ahead, the VBEI report suggests the future remains uncertain, despite the positive growth projections. Visa’s Chief Economist Wayne Best remarked that the current environment “marks a softer starting point than earlier in the decade, which should limit how high prices ultimately climb.” This implies that consumer sentiment could shift rapidly depending on broader economic conditions and any emerging geopolitical fragility.
For small businesses, leveraging the growth of digital commerce and responding to changing consumer behaviours presents significant opportunities. Expanding digital presence, implementing effective online stores, and embracing digital tools to streamline operations are seen as critical moves.
However, the evolving digital landscape also brings increased competition and the paramount need for robust cybersecurity measures. Protecting customer data and transactions is essential for maintaining trust and loyalty in an increasingly online marketplace. Investing in reliable cyber protections not only secures operations but also reassures online shoppers about the safety of their information.
The confluence of industrial investment, digital adoption, and adaptable consumer spending creates a complex environment. Businesses that aggressively embrace technology, employ strategic marketing, and vigilantly manage costs are best positioned to navigate these dynamics and foster sustained growth in the coming years. The ongoing shifts underline a continuous need for evolution alongside economic realities.