Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2: Expert Predictions for UFC 311
The UFC is kicking off 2025 with a bang! This Saturday night, UFC 311 will deliver a stacked card with two title fights at the top. The main event sees lightweight king Islam Makhachev vs Tsarukyan in a much-anticipated rematch, with Makhachev putting his belt on the line against a hungry challenger. Meanwhile, the co-main event features Merab Dvalishvili defending his bantamweight crown for the first time against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.
The event begins at 6 p.m. ET with early prelims on FX, Disney+, and ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS, FX, Disney+, and ESPN+. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, exclusively on ESPN+ Pay-Per-View. Let’s break it all down.
Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan (Lightweight Championship)
Islam Makhachev: The Champ Stands Tall
Islam Makhachev has been a dominant force in the lightweight division since capturing the title in 2022. Known for his incredible wrestling and growing striking skills, he’s already defended the belt four times, most recently submitting Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 last year. Makhachev is widely considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC right now, and for good reason—he’s incredibly hard to beat.
Arman Tsarukyan: The Challenger’s Big Moment
Arman Tsarukyan has been laser-focused on getting back to this moment ever since his 2019 loss to Makhachev. That first fight was surprisingly competitive, and it showed that the young Tsarukyan had serious potential. Fast forward to now, and he’s on a four-fight win streak, including a gritty split-decision victory over former champ Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. He’s improved in every area since their first meeting, making this a truly intriguing rematch.
What Each Fighter Needs to Do to Win
How Makhachev Wins:
Last time they fought, Makhachev exploited a mistake Tsarukyan made in the clinch, using a simple leg sweep to dominate the grappling exchanges. While he might not have the same edge in that department this time, he can lean on his striking, which has come a long way. To win, Makhachev needs to keep Tsarukyan moving backward, pin him against the cage, and work his striking from range. If he controls the pace, he’ll likely walk away with another win.
How Tsarukyan Wins:
Tsarukyan has been obsessed with improving since their first fight, especially his wrestling. He knows he can’t let Makhachev out-grapple him again. To win, he’ll need to avoid making mistakes, mix up his striking and takedown attempts, and keep the fight unpredictable. Tsarukyan is the more diverse striker, and if he can use that creativity to land big shots, he might pull off the upset.
Key Factor: Striking
While both fighters are phenomenal grapplers, this fight might be decided on the feet. Makhachev’s striking has gotten sharper, but Tsarukyan is more dynamic and has better knockout potential. If the fight stays standing, it could favor Tsarukyan. But Makhachev’s ability to blend striking and grappling makes him a constant threat.
Expert Predictions
Analyst Alan Jouban believes Makhachev will win by decision, relying on his experience and composure to grind out a victory. Betting expert Ian Parker agrees, adding that Makhachev’s ability to control fights and avoid big mistakes makes him the safer bet. They don’t expect Tsarukyan to out-grapple Makhachev or land a knockout.
Co-Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight Championship)
Merab Dvalishvili: Relentless Energy
Merab Dvalishvili is a cardio machine. His style revolves around an insane pace, constant takedown attempts, and wearing his opponents down. After beating Sean O’Malley to claim the title, Dvalishvili feels he’s being rushed into defending his belt. But he’s motivated to show he’s the rightful champion and will need to be at his absolute best to stop Nurmagomedov.
Umar Nurmagomedov: The Undefeated Contender
The undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov is a rising star with a well-rounded game. Like his famous cousin Khabib, Umar is a grappling specialist but also has a dynamic striking arsenal, particularly his kicks. This is his chance to cement his own legacy by taking out one of the UFC’s most relentless fighters.
What Each Fighter Needs to Do to Win
How Dvalishvili Wins:
For Dvalishvili, it’s all about pace. He needs to overwhelm Nurmagomedov with takedowns and keep him on the defensive. If he can avoid getting caught by one of Nurmagomedov’s big kicks or strikes, his grinding style could wear down the challenger and secure a decision win.
How Nurmagomedov Wins:
Nurmagomedov’s key to victory lies in stopping Dvalishvili’s takedowns and landing significant strikes. His kicks could play a big role in keeping Dvalishvili at a distance, but he’ll need to be smart about not getting taken down. If he can keep the fight standing and frustrate Dvalishvili, he has the tools to either knock him out or win on the scorecards.
Key Factor: Cardio
This fight might come down to who can keep up the pace. Dvalishvili thrives in long, grueling battles, but if Nurmagomedov can maintain his energy and avoid getting dragged into Dvalishvili’s wrestling-heavy game, he could pull off the upset.
Expert Predictions
Alan Jouban thinks Dvalishvili’s relentless style will get him the decision win, but Ian Parker disagrees, picking Nurmagomedov. Parker believes Nurmagomedov’s striking and ability to counter Dvalishvili’s predictable takedowns will be too much for the champ to handle.
Source: UFC 311: Expert picks, best bets for Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2
Other Fights to Watch
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder (Middleweight Bout)
Kevin Holland is known for his entertaining style and knockout power, while Reinier de Ridder is more of a grappler. De Ridder didn’t impress in his UFC debut, and his striking looked sloppy. Holland has a big advantage on the feet and should win as long as he doesn’t get held down for three rounds.
- Prediction: Holland wins, likely by knockout.
Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez (Women’s Bantamweight Bout)
Karol Rosa is a well-rounded fighter with experience against tough competition. Ailin Perez’s best chance to win is by taking Rosa down and controlling her, but Rosa’s strong takedown defense and striking make her the favorite.
- Prediction: Rosa wins, probably by decision.

Betting Tips
- Bet on Makhachev (KO/TKO or Decision): He’s the more complete fighter and has a proven track record of dominating opponents.
- Consider Nurmagomedov (KO/TKO or Decision): He has the tools to upset Dvalishvili, especially if he can keep the fight standing.
- Holland is a Smart Pick: His striking advantage makes him a good bet, especially against a grappler like de Ridder.
- Rosa is a Safe Bet: Her well-rounded skills make her a strong favorite.
Closing Thoughts: Why UFC 311 is a Must-Watch Event
UFC 311 is shaping up to be an unforgettable night. The main event offers a clash between the dominant champion Makhachev and a surging challenger in Tsarukyan, while the co-main event pits two relentless bantamweights against each other. With plenty of action and opportunities for upsets, this is a must-watch event for any MMA fan. Don’t miss it this Saturday on ESPN+ Pay-Per-View!
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