- Errol Spence and Terence Crawford Took Part In Boxing’s Superbowl Event On Saturday Night
- Crawford Stopped Spence In Round 9 Of Their Showtime PPV Event From Las Vegas, USA
- This Article Will Not Tell You The Spence vs Crawford PPV Buys But Merely Attempts To Estimate It
- Here Is A Detailed Comparison Of Pre-Fight Numbers Relative To Other US PPV Events
At the time of writing this, probably nobody knows how many pay-per-view buys Saturday’s super fight between Errol Spence and Terence Crawford has done.
This article will attempt to predict the Spence vs Crawford PPV Buys by comparing numbers on different metrics to other PPV fights in the US and the buys they have achieved.
Perhaps the best comparison to Spence Crawford is April’s fight between Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia which achieved 1.2m PPV buys, but other fights will also be used.
Benavidez vs Plant reportedly achieved 150k PPV buys and Canelo vs Plant 750k.
Spence vs Crawford
Episode 1: 2.53M Views
Episode 2: 2.42M Views
Davis vs Garcia
Episode 1: 5.9 M Views
Episode 2: 3.9M View
Plant vs Benavidez
Episode 1: 1.8M Views
Canelo vs Plant
Episode 1: 2.8M Views
Episode 2: 2.6M Views
All Access numbers for Spence vs Crawford fall at around 50% of Tank vs Ryan Garcia and around 92% of the two Canelo-Plant episodes.
Obviously, international viewers can still see these episodes and the other episodes have been available for much longer, despite the fight already happening. Viewership will be much smaller after the event but they will still gain views.
Viewership for this programming is still an interesting comparison though. It must also be noted that the Social Media audience for Tank-Garcia gives it a significant advantage on a platform like YouTube.
Numerous outlets covered the press conference. This comparison will only look into long-form versions of the top 5 most viewed videos from the news conference and will have two separate categories: launch press conferences and final press conferences.
Launch Press Conference
Davis vs Garcia: 5.6m
Spence vs Crawford: 1.8m
Benavidez vs Plant: ~500k
Canelo vs Plant: 2.8m
Final Press Conference
Davis vs Garcia: 3.5m
Spence vs Crawford: 1.5m
Benavidez vs Plant: 1.6m
Canelo vs Plant: 1.5m
The expected war of words was far more significant in Benavidez Plant and Davis Garcia than Spence-Crawford.
Davis Garcia is once again head and shoulders above the rest of the fights and a clear outlier.
Social Media Interaction/Clips
Top 5 Clips/Shorts From YouTube
Davis vs Garcia: 13.7m
Spence vs Crawford: 5.9m
Benavidez vs Plant: 1.9m
Canelo vs Plant: 10.8m
Highest Viewed Instagram Clip Relating To The Fight From Fighters + Broadcaster
Davis vs Garcia: 34.3m
Spence vs Crawford: 5.7m
Benavidez vs Plant: 1.8m
Canelo vs Plant: 17.5m
Davis vs Garcia: 3.5m
Spence vs Crawford: 1.9m
Benavidez vs Plant: ~500k
Canelo vs Plant: 3.7m
The Canelo vs Plant weigh-in was far more heated than the others explaining it outperforming its counterparts.
Other Key Factors
All four of these fights also had mainstream coverage from the likes of ESPN. A second significant platform in DAZN was also involved in the Davis-Garcia fight which would’ve helped increase the exposure in that fight.
YouTube/Social media numbers obviously do not allow you to isolate viewership by country. The Spence-Crawford numbers would’ve been dominated by the US whilst Canelo fights would have a huge amount of interest in Mexico. Both Davis-Garcia and Canelo-Plant are bigger fights globally than Spence-Crawford.
Spence vs Crawford PPV Buys Prediction
There are outliers but for the most part, Spence-Crawford outperformed Benavidez-Plant by around 3-4x using this metric. Fight fans also may be interested in a fight like Benavidez-Plant but not as likely to pay for it as they are for Spence-Crawford so the higher end of that number is more likely.
Davis-Garcia dominates these numbers as their younger fan bases are more receptive through social media and places the fight 2-3x bigger through this metric but due to the pair’s prevalence on social media, I think the lower end of this number should be considered as a more accurate translation to PPV purchases.
The viral moments at the weigh-in and press conference for Canelo-Plant boosted interest and also saw big spikes in the numbers for these metrics. Spence-Crawford All Access numbers were around 90% of Canelo Plant, the weigh-in was 2x as high as Saturday’s fight whilst the final press conference saw a very even split.
The fan base of Canelo and his previous PPV successes are far greater than either Spence or Crawford, it must be said but a huge amount of that is from Mexico.
Google trends/search results show similar results tracking at around 50% of Davis-Garcia and slightly lower than Canelo-Plant.
Saturday’s fight will do around a ~20m gate putting it slightly above Canelo Plant but below Davis-Garcia and Canelo GGG 3.
Spence-Crawford was a fight more anticipated than any of the other three by boxing fans but probably didn’t reach the casuals in the same way, NoSmokeSport.com predicts the Spence vs Crawford PPV buys at 600-700k based on a detailed analysis of the above listed and other metrics.
Spence vs Crawford PPV Buys
NoSmokeSport.com predicts the Spence vs Crawford PPV buys at 600-700k based on a detailed analysis of the above listed and other metrics