Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n s\u1ed1 \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m khi c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Ben Cowen, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f3 ti\u1ebfng trong c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 chia s\u1ebb g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Bitcoin v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ef1a th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong chu k\u1ef3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Theo nh\u1eefng quan s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111ang g\u1ee3i m\u1edf v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u00e2u h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n
Cowen v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, thay v\u00ec b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n theo nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng. Trong c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, \u00f4ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c th\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n ngay tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t rung l\u1eafc m\u1ea1nh. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00fac n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 t\u1ec9nh t\u00e1o, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u m\u1ec7t m\u1ecfi sau m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n
M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 then ch\u1ed1t m\u00e0 gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t sao l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Bitcoin quanh c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 quan tr\u1ecdng. Cowen nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u00e3 h\u00f3a h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1eef v\u1eefng c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng gi\u00e1 thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu, t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb hy v\u1ecdng sang ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng “b\u1eaby thanh kho\u1ea3n”, n\u01a1i nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1nh l\u1eeba nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lao d\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n
Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o cho r\u1eb1ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Stablecoin t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh<\/a> c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 c\u1ee9u c\u00e1nh cho thanh kho\u1ea3n, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf vi\u1ec7c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro hay kh\u00f4ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u h\u1ecfi l\u1edbn trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n.<\/p>\n Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t thanh l\u1ecdc m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n. C\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n kh\u00e1 cao so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u1ed1n th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eebng ch\u00e2n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea5u trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n Nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Bitcoin th\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec5n ra v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a \u0111a s\u1ed1. Cowen cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc h\u00e0nh vi. \u00d4ng l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed tr\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng m\u1ea1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111ang c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u01b0u t\u00e2m:<\/p>\n Nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh cho th\u1ea5y, n\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c m\u1edbi, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. S\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 th\u00edch nghi t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch Epic Games bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u01a1i c\u1ee7a fan th\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c<\/a> \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef ch\u00e2n ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng trong m\u1ed9t k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n Thay v\u00ec mong \u0111\u1ee3i m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 ngo\u1ea1n m\u1ee5c l\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh cao m\u1edbi trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn, gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111i ngang ho\u1eb7c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1eb9p. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Bitcoin quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00f3ng ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cao do thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t s\u1ef1 tham gia m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro cao, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh sai l\u1ea7m d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u1ea3m t\u00ednh. D\u00f9 c\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Ben Cowen mang m\u00e0u s\u1eafc th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, ch\u00fang l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 l\u1eddi nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 quan tr\u1ecdng trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh danh m\u1ee5c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch linh ho\u1ea1t.<\/p>\nD\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u00e2u<\/h2>\n
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Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro<\/h2>\n