Sam Darnold’s $100M Potential: The QB Market’s Biggest Domino in 2025

Sam Darnold’s $100M Potential: The QB Market’s Biggest Domino in 2025

The 2025 NFL offseason is already heating up, and if there’s one storyline everyone is watching, it’s the quarterback market. With so many teams looking for answers at the most important position in football, the decisions made over the next few months could have ripple effects across the league. At the center of it all is one player: Sam Darnold. The Vikings quarterback is hitting free agency after a career-reviving 2024 season, and wherever he lands could dictate how the rest of the QB market shakes out. Let’s dive into the chaos.

Why Sam Darnold Is the Biggest Domino

Sam Darnold’s career has been a rollercoaster. Drafted third overall by the Jets in 2018, he was once considered a future franchise QB but struggled in New York. After bouncing to Carolina and eventually landing with the Vikings, Darnold finally found his groove in 2024. Filling in for injured rookie J.J. McCarthy, he threw for over 4,300 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, leading the Vikings to 14 wins.

Still, Darnold’s story is complicated. While his regular season was stellar, his final two games—the Week 18 loss to Detroit and a rough wild-card performance against the Rams—left a sour taste. Can he win when it matters most? That’s the question every team will ask. But in a league desperate for quarterbacks, Darnold is the best available option in a thin market.

With quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins aging and coming off injuries, and a draft class that’s underwhelming, Darnold’s timing couldn’t be better. He’s only 27, and teams love his untapped potential. A three-year deal worth $30–40 million annually seems likely, and that could be on the conservative side.

Teams That Could Land Darnold

So, who’s ready to back up the money truck for Darnold? A handful of teams make the most sense:

1. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have the most cap space in the league, with over $73 million to spend. After a disappointing stint with Gardner Minshew last year, they’re in desperate need of a quarterback reset. With Pete Carroll now leading the team, Darnold could thrive in a system built to highlight his strengths. Carroll’s history of reviving careers (see: Geno Smith) makes this an intriguing fit.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is in a tough spot. They’ve been stuck in quarterback limbo, and neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields provided the spark they hoped for last season. The Steelers aren’t in position to draft a top QB, and their roster is too talented to waste another year. Enter Darnold. While signing a free-agent QB is out of character for head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers might be desperate enough to make a move.

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3. New York Giants

The Giants hold the No. 3 pick in the draft, but there’s no guarantee they’ll land the quarterback they want. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are the top two prospects, but the Giants would need some luck—or a trade—to secure one. Signing Darnold gives them an insurance plan, plus it takes some heat off head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen, who are reportedly on the hot seat.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Here’s where things get interesting. The Vikings love J.J. McCarthy, their rookie quarterback from last year. But McCarthy missed the entire season with a torn meniscus, and the team has to ask itself: Can we trust him to be ready? If the Vikings bring back Darnold, they buy themselves some breathing room. Plus, Darnold knows the system and proved he can win in it. The question is whether Minnesota can afford him if the bidding war gets too crazy.

Source: 2025 NFL offseason: QB market dominoes for Sam Darnold, more

How Darnold’s Decision Shapes the League

Once Darnold signs, everything else will fall into place. His choice will create a domino effect that impacts where other quarterbacks land. Here are a few possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Darnold Signs with the Raiders

If Darnold ends up in Vegas, it’s a signal that the Raiders want to stay competitive while rebuilding. Other moves could include:

  • Kirk Cousins to the Steelers: Pittsburgh pivots to Cousins, hoping he can provide steady, if unspectacular, play for a couple of years.
  • Aaron Rodgers to the Titans: Tennessee gambles on the aging Rodgers, hoping he can mentor Will Levis while keeping the team competitive.
  • Russell Wilson to the Jets: The Jets’ new GM, Darren Mougey, worked with Wilson in Denver and might roll the dice on him as a short-term solution.

Scenario 2: Darnold Joins the Steelers

If Pittsburgh wins the Darnold sweepstakes, the Raiders and other teams will scramble. Possible moves include:

  • Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson to the Raiders: Pete Carroll might reunite with Wilson while taking a one-year flyer on Rodgers. It’s chaotic but entertaining.
  • Justin Fields to the Giants: The Giants could pick up Fields as a backup plan while they groom a rookie QB.
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Scenario 3: Darnold Heads to the Giants

This move would shake up the draft, as the Giants might use their No. 3 pick on a non-QB. Other potential outcomes include:

  • Aaron Rodgers to the Colts: Indianapolis could bring in Rodgers to mentor Anthony Richardson and give the team a shot at a playoff run.
  • Jets Trade for the No. 1 Pick: The Jets could get aggressive and move up in the draft to take Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Scenario 4: Darnold Stays in Minnesota

If the Vikings re-sign Darnold, it sets the tone for a win-now approach while McCarthy develops. Meanwhile:

  • Derek Carr to the Steelers: Pittsburgh might trade for Carr, who is likely to be cut or traded by the Saints for cap relief.
  • Will Levis to the Raiders: Las Vegas could take a shot on Levis, hoping to develop him behind a veteran stopgap QB.
Sam Darnold’s $100M Potential: The QB Market’s Biggest Domino in 2025

The Rest of the QB Market

Beyond Darnold, the quarterback options are underwhelming. Veterans like Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson are available but come with question marks. Rodgers and Cousins are aging and recovering from injuries, while Wilson has struggled for two straight seasons. Justin Fields remains intriguing, but his lack of consistency as a passer could scare teams away.

The draft doesn’t offer much relief. Outside of Sanders and Ward, the 2025 QB class lacks depth, leaving teams to either overpay for veterans or gamble on developmental players.

Why This Offseason Matters

The 2025 offseason will be a defining moment for several teams. A franchise quarterback can turn a team into a contender, but getting it wrong can set a team back for years. Sam Darnold’s decision will set the tone for everything that follows. Whether he stays in Minnesota or starts fresh somewhere else, his next move will create a ripple effect across the league.

For teams like the Raiders, Steelers, and Giants, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A bold move could pay off big—or blow up in their faces. And for Sam Darnold, this is a chance to finally prove he belongs among the NFL’s top quarterbacks. The clock is ticking, and the dominoes are about to fall.

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