Premier League Teams Battling For Champions League Glory

The Premier League is heating up, and while Liverpool seems to have the title in their grasp, the real drama is unfolding in the fight for Champions League spots among Premier League teams like Manchester City, Chelsea, and Newcastle United. With an extra qualification spot almost guaranteed for English teams next season, the battle for the top five is more intense than ever, with clubs such as Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, and Manchester United all in contention.

England’s dominance in European competitions this season has put them in pole position to claim an additional Champions League berth for 2025-26. That means clubs that might have fallen short in previous seasons now have a real shot at making it to Europe’s top tournament.

With about 12 games left, eight teams are still in the mix. Let’s break down their chances, looking at why they could make it and what might hold them back.

Aston Villa, Brighton & Fulham: Can They Beat the Odds

Why They Might Make It: Aston Villa’s recent win over Chelsea was a huge boost, and their upcoming matches against Manchester City, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forest could be decisive. Brighton has quietly been one of the strongest teams in 2025, especially when it comes to their performance outside of penalties. Meanwhile, Fulham is also up there in expected goals, proving they can create plenty of chances.
Why They Might Fall Short: These teams are solid but not significantly better than the ones ahead of them. They all need to leapfrog at least three rivals to break into the top five, which is easier said than done. Statistically, they have just an 18% chance of finishing in the top five, which is tough considering Manchester City (91%), Nottingham Forest (67%), Chelsea (50%), Newcastle (48%), and Bournemouth (25%) all have better odds.

Chelsea: Can Cole Palmer Carry Them

Why They Might Make It: Cole Palmer has been the shining star for Chelsea this season, ranking among the best players in the league. He’s one of the most creative and effective attackers, even rivaling Haaland in terms of goal contributions. If he can recapture his early-season form, Chelsea has a strong chance of climbing into the top five.
Why They Might Fall Short: Palmer hasn’t been the same player in 2025. He’s only managed two goals with no assists since the start of the year, and Chelsea has struggled as a result. They’ve won fewer points in 2025 than any other team fighting for a Champions League spot. In fact, their recent form is on par with Manchester United—definitely not where they want to be.

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Bournemouth: The Wild Card

Why They Might Make It: Bournemouth has quietly been one of the best-performing teams this season. Based on a mix of goals and expected goals, they’re the third-best team in the league—only Arsenal and Liverpool have been better. Their aggressive, high-pressing style has made them a nightmare for opponents.
Why They Might Fall Short: A big chunk of Bournemouth’s success has come from winning penalties—they’ve won seven and only conceded two. That’s not a sustainable strategy, and if they stop getting those favorable calls, their results could take a dip. Without those penalty boosts, they’re only the fifth-best team in the league, which puts them right on the bubble for a Champions League spot.

Newcastle United: Isak Leading the Charge

Why They Might Make It: Alexander Isak has been in red-hot form, scoring at a better rate than even Haaland and Salah in terms of non-penalty goals. If he keeps this up, Newcastle’s attack could be strong enough to secure them a Champions League place.
Why They Might Fall Short: Newcastle’s defense is shaky. While they’re scoring plenty of goals, their defensive record isn’t as strong as their rivals. They’re in the middle of the pack for defensive stats, and teams like Manchester City and Chelsea generate more shots than they do. If Isak cools off, Newcastle might struggle to keep up.

Source: Premier League teams that will or won’t get Champions League spots

Manchester City: Too Much Talent to Miss Out

Why They Might Make It: Despite some struggles, Manchester City remains one of the most talented squads in the league. Their form has improved since January, and they’ve faced a tough run of fixtures, including games against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Newcastle. With Pep Guardiola at the helm and a squad packed with world-class players, missing out on the top five seems almost unthinkable.
Why They Might Fall Short: Defense has been their Achilles’ heel. They allow some of the highest-quality shots in the league, and their issues with pressing, transitions, and deep defending have made them vulnerable. If teams can break through their midfield, City’s backline looks alarmingly fragile.

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Premier League Teams Battling for Champions League Glory

Nottingham Forest: The Unexpected Contender

Why They Might Make It: Forest has a four-point cushion over sixth place, which is a bigger deal than it sounds. With just 12 games left, that kind of lead is tough to erase. Essentially, the gap between them and sixth place is about as significant as the difference in quality between Liverpool and Aston Villa last season.
Why They Might Fall Short: Statistically, Forest is probably the weakest team in this group. They play a counterattacking style that has worked well so far, but they allow more shots than they take and spend too much time defending. Their success has also been driven by outlier performances from Chris Wood and goalkeeper Matz Sels, both of whom are having career-best seasons. If they regress to the mean, Forest could start slipping.

Final Prediction: Who Makes It

With five Premier League teams almost guaranteed a spot in next season’s Champions League, the battle is coming down to the wire. Based on their current form and projections, Manchester City and Newcastle seem like strong bets to qualify, despite some flaws. Nottingham Forest’s four-point advantage could be enough to see them through, but their long-term sustainability is questionable.

Chelsea, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa are still in the race but need a near-perfect run to break into the top five. Brighton and Fulham, while impressive, don’t seem to have enough firepower to realistically challenge.

With every game carrying massive implications, the Premier League’s Champions League race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting finishes in recent years. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride to the finish line!