NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18 Scenarios for Teams Fighting to Stay Alive
The 2024 NFL regular season comes to an exciting finish this weekend with plenty still at stake. Nine teams are battling for playoff spots or division titles, and while some control their own destiny, others need help. The NFL playoff picture is filled with high-stakes matchups, and here’s what each team must do to secure their postseason dreams—and the key strategies that could make the difference.
AFC Wild-Card Race
Three teams—the Broncos, Dolphins, and Bengals—are in a fight for the AFC’s final wild-card spot. Here’s the game plan for each:
Denver Broncos
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Playoff Scenario: Win or tie OR both Bengals and Dolphins lose/tie.
Key Strategy: Pressure Kansas City’s backup QB Carson Wentz.
With Patrick Mahomes sitting out, Carson Wentz will lead the Chiefs’ offense. That’s an opening for Denver’s defense to get aggressive. In their last matchup, Denver played man coverage on nearly 75% of dropbacks and blitzed over 30% of the time. It worked, holding Kansas City to just 16 points.
This time, Denver’s corners Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss will need to lock down the Chiefs’ receivers while the pass rush forces Wentz to make mistakes. If they rattle him early, Denver’s playoff chances soar.
Miami Dolphins
Opponent: New York Jets
Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Playoff Scenario: Win AND the Broncos lose.
Key Strategy: Shut down Aaron Rodgers on third downs.
Rodgers had a monster game against Miami in Week 14, throwing for 339 yards. But the Dolphins did manage to limit him on third downs, holding the Jets to just three conversions in 11 attempts.
The Dolphins must mix their defensive looks again—using zones, rovers, and two-deep shells—to take away Rodgers’ favorite middle-of-the-field throws. They’ll also need to disrupt his rhythm by jamming receivers like Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson at the line of scrimmage.
Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Playoff Scenario: Win AND both the Broncos lose AND the Dolphins lose/tie.
Key Strategy: Use Tee Higgins in the red zone.
The Steelers’ defense has made a habit of bracketing Ja’Marr Chase in scoring situations, leaving Tee Higgins with one-on-one matchups. In Week 13, Higgins exploited these looks for a key touchdown, and Cincinnati should go back to this well.
Expect the Bengals to set up Higgins with routes like corners, slants, and outs to capitalize on his size and speed advantage. This could be their ticket to another must-win victory.
AFC North Title Race
The Ravens and Steelers are battling for the division crown. Baltimore holds the edge, but Pittsburgh still has a shot.
Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Game Time: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Playoff Scenario: Win or tie OR Steelers lose/tie.
Key Strategy: Attack Cleveland’s single-high defense with Zay Flowers.
The Browns heavily rely on single-high coverages, leaving opportunities for big plays downfield. Ravens wideout Zay Flowers torched this defense earlier in the season with 115 yards on seven catches, including multiple deep plays off wheel routes.
By using motion and creative alignments, Baltimore can free up Flowers again and give Lamar Jackson open targets in the deep zones. Cleveland has struggled with giving up long completions, and Flowers could be the key to putting the game away early.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Game Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Playoff Scenario: Win AND Ravens lose.
Key Strategy: Run Najee Harris to the outside.
Pittsburgh’s offense thrives when Najee Harris is involved, especially on runs to the perimeter. Against the Bengals in Week 13, Harris racked up 75 yards, including 68 on outside runs.
The Bengals’ defense is vulnerable on edge plays, allowing over five yards per carry in those situations. Expect Pittsburgh to rely on tosses, pin-pull runs, and outside zones to wear down Cincinnati’s defense and set up big play-action opportunities.
Source: NFL playoff picture: Keys for nine teams needing Week 18 wins
NFC Top Seed Race
The Lions and Vikings are not only fighting for the NFC North crown but also for the #1 seed in the conference.
Detroit Lions
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Game Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Playoff Scenario: Win or tie.
Key Strategy: Counter Minnesota’s blitzes with quick throws.
The Vikings blitzed Detroit heavily in their Week 7 meeting, but Jared Goff handled it well, completing 14 of 16 passes against the rush.
With running back David Montgomery out, Detroit will need quick throws and screens to neutralize Minnesota’s pressure. Goff’s accuracy on inside-the-numbers throws will be key, especially when targeting receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown on short routes that can turn into big gains.
Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Game Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Playoff Scenario: Win.
Key Strategy: Use wide bunch formations to confuse Detroit’s defense.
The Lions play a lot of man coverage, which creates opportunities for Minnesota to use bunch formations and trip sets to free up their receivers.
In their earlier matchup, Sam Darnold found Justin Jefferson for several big plays out of these alignments, including a 25-yard touchdown. If the Vikings can exploit these mismatches again, they’ll have a shot at taking the NFC’s top spot.
NFC South Title Race
The Buccaneers and Falcons are duking it out for the division title and the last NFC playoff spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: New Orleans Saints
Game Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Playoff Scenario: Win or tie OR Falcons lose/tie.
Key Strategy: Blitz Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler.
With veteran QB Derek Carr out, rookie Spencer Rattler is set to start for New Orleans. Tampa Bay’s defense, which blitzes more than most teams, will need to bring the heat and force the rookie into bad decisions.
The Buccaneers’ defensive backs are especially dangerous on blitzes, and Rattler has struggled under pressure, completing just 44% of his passes against the rush. By bringing consistent pressure, Tampa Bay can control the game.
Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Game Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Playoff Scenario: Win AND Buccaneers lose.
Key Strategy: Feed Bijan Robinson on outside runs.
Rookie running back Bijan Robinson has been a revelation for Atlanta, combining speed and power to dominate on the ground. Against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed, Robinson should have a monster game.
The Falcons need to stick with their bread-and-butter outside zone runs, giving Robinson the chance to break big plays. If they control the clock and keep Carolina off the field, they’ll have a chance to steal the division.
The Final Push
Week 18 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting finishes in recent NFL history. For these nine teams, everything is on the line. Some control their fate, while others must rely on help. Either way, every snap, every play, and every coaching decision will matter. The road to the playoffs is within reach—but only for those who seize the moment.
Read More: Bengals vs Steelers: Cincinnati Keeps Playoff Hopes Alive