Analyzing Why Each Australian Open Men’s Semifinalist Has a Shot at the Title

We’ve reached the business end of the 2025 Australian Open, and four Australian Open men’s semifinalists are left standing: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Ben Shelton. Each of them has a unique story that could lead to lifting the trophy on Sunday. Here’s a look at why each semifinalist has what it takes to win it all.

Jannik Sinner (No. 1 Seed)

Jannik Sinner isn’t just the defending champion—he’s been the best player in the world for the past year. In 2024, he had a dream season, winning three major titles (including last year’s Australian Open), taking home the ATP Finals, and banking over $19 million in prize money. Oh, and he’s still only 23 years old.

Sinner’s dominance on hard courts has been something else. He’s won 15 of his last 16 matches at Melbourne Park, and in this tournament alone, he’s been near-flawless. His quarterfinal against Alex de Minaur was a statement—a straight-sets demolition where he only dropped six games. It was the kind of performance that makes everyone else in the draw take notice.

What makes Sinner so tough to beat? First, he hardly makes mistakes—he’s committed the fewest unforced errors of the four semifinalists. Second, he’s incredibly consistent. He forces opponents to play near-perfect tennis just to keep up, and so far, nobody has been able to do that.

His road to the final has also been relatively smooth. He hasn’t faced anyone with Grand Slam semifinal experience, and in Friday’s semifinal, he’ll face Ben Shelton, a player he’s beaten four times in a row without dropping a set. Even if he makes it to the final, he’s already beaten Djokovic and Zverev in big matches over the past year.

Simply put, this is Sinner’s tournament to lose.

Alexander Zverev (No. 2 Seed)

Alexander Zverev has been knocking on the door of Grand Slam success for years. He’s reached 10 Grand Slam semifinals and came heartbreakingly close to winning the US Open in 2020 and the French Open in 2024. This year, the 25-year-old German is in peak form.

Last year was his best season ever. Zverev won two Masters 1000 titles, racked up 69 match wins, and finished as the world’s No. 2 player. He’s carried that momentum into Melbourne, looking sharp in every match so far.

Zverev’s biggest weapon is his serve. He’s been landing an incredible 71% of his first serves, winning nearly 80% of those points. Those numbers are the best of any semifinalist, and when his serve is firing, it’s hard to stop him.

The real test comes in the semifinal, where he’ll face Novak Djokovic, the 10-time Australian Open champion. Beating Djokovic in Melbourne is one of the toughest challenges in tennis, but Zverev knows it’s possible. He’s beaten Djokovic twice in their last four meetings, including a huge win at the Tokyo Olympics. Zverev is also the fresher of the two, having spent less time on court during the tournament.

If Zverev can get past Djokovic, he has every reason to feel confident. He holds a winning record against both Sinner and Shelton, so a victory on Sunday is well within his reach.

“I’ve been chasing this dream of winning a Grand Slam for a long time,” Zverev said after his quarterfinal win. “I feel like I’m getting closer.”

Novak Djokovic (No. 7 Seed)

When it comes to the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic is in a league of his own. He’s won this tournament 10 times, and his record in semifinals and finals here is almost unbelievable: 20 wins and just 1 loss.

At 37 years old, Djokovic continues to defy expectations. While he didn’t win a Grand Slam in 2024, he’s already reminded everyone why he’s one of the greatest players of all time. His quarterfinal win over world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz was a masterpiece, even though he had to battle through a leg injury during the match.

That injury is a concern, but Djokovic has proven time and again that he can overcome physical setbacks. In 2021, he won the Australian Open with a torn abdominal muscle. In 2023, he triumphed with a significant hamstring tear. His mental toughness and ability to adapt to adversity are unmatched.

Winning this year would be historic. It would give Djokovic his 25th Grand Slam title, breaking his tie with Margaret Court for the most Grand Slam singles titles in history. It would also make him the oldest man to ever win a major title, a testament to his longevity and greatness.

“If I can recover well, I know I have what it takes,” Djokovic said after his quarterfinal. “Mentally, emotionally, I’m as motivated as ever.”

With his experience and hunger for more records, Djokovic is a serious contender—injury or not.

Source: Why each Australian Open men’s semifinalist can win the title

Ben Shelton (No. 21 Seed)

Ben Shelton is the wildcard in this semifinal lineup, and he’s playing with nothing to lose. At 22 years old, the American is making just his second Grand Slam semifinal appearance after reaching the same stage at the 2023 US Open.

What makes Shelton dangerous is his serve. It’s an absolute weapon, and he’s been using it to great effect throughout the tournament. He’s hit the fastest serve of the event—232 kph (144 mph)—and has only been broken six times in 98 service games. His ability to dominate on serve keeps him in matches, even when other parts of his game aren’t perfect.

This tournament feels like a breakout moment for Shelton. He’s playing more confidently than ever and has added more variety to his game. After an up-and-down 2024 season, he ended the year on a high note with strong performances in Houston and Basel, as well as wins over top players like Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev.

“I’m finding ways to win even when things aren’t perfect,” Shelton said after his quarterfinal win. “That’s been the biggest growth in my game.”

Shelton faces a tough task against Sinner in the semifinal, especially since he’s never beaten the Italian in four previous matches. But as the underdog, Shelton has less pressure and more freedom to swing big. If he plays his best tennis, he could pull off the upset and shock the world.

What to Expect

Each of these four players brings something unique to the table. Sinner is the favorite, combining consistency and firepower. Zverev’s serve and determination make him a serious contender. Djokovic’s experience and mental strength are unmatched, while Shelton’s fearless game and booming serve could make him a dark horse.

As the tournament reaches its climax, one thing is clear: we’re in for an unforgettable finish. Whether it’s a rising star or a seasoned champion, the 2025 Australian Open trophy will be earned the hard way.

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