Breaking Down The MLB Top 5: 2025 Draft Projections

The Washington Nationals pulled off a surprise victory in the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery, securing the first overall pick and setting the tone for the MLB Top 5 draft picks, despite only having the fourth-best odds at 10.2%. This year’s lottery, held at the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas, marked the third installment of the event and set the stage for the Nationals to make a game-changing selection in July. Here’s a closer look at the early projections for the top five picks and what they might mean for each team.

Nationals Land First Pick: Ethan Holliday is the Favorite

The Nationals, a team with a history of bold choices, are expected to use the top pick on Ethan Holliday, a standout third baseman from Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. Holliday is no stranger to baseball fans; he’s the younger brother of Jackson Holliday, a previous first overall pick. While opinions on Ethan’s potential differ, most scouts agree he’s a top-five talent in the 2025 draft class.

Ethan is known for his impressive power and the potential to remain at third base in the pros. However, some concerns linger about his consistency at the plate. Scouts praise his smooth swing and expect a strong spring season to solidify his stock, similar to how his brother Jackson climbed the ranks before his draft. The Nationals’ track record of selecting high-upside players, like Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, makes Holliday a natural fit if he keeps progressing.

Before the lottery, many thought Holliday might be destined for the Colorado Rockies, who had tied for the best odds of landing the top pick. However, the Rockies fell to fourth, opening the door for Washington to take Holliday and stay true to their tendency of aiming for big potential.

Source: Nationals win 2025 MLB draft lottery

Angels Look at Jace LaViolette with No. 2

The Los Angeles Angels, holding the second pick, are likely to target Jace LaViolette, an outfielder from Texas A&M. LaViolette’s blend of power and defensive skills makes him one of the draft’s most exciting prospects. Standing at 6-foot-6, he’s been compared to Lance Berkman, a former first-rounder known for his hitting prowess. While LaViolette’s contact skills still need refining, his physical abilities and college performance make him a strong contender for this pick.

The Angels have a reputation for favoring polished college players who can make a quick impact. LaViolette’s power and production suggest he fits this mold perfectly. If Los Angeles is looking to bolster their farm system with a player who could move up quickly, LaViolette might be their guy.

Mariners Eye Jamie Arnold for Third Pick

With the third pick, the Seattle Mariners are projected to take Jamie Arnold, a left-handed pitcher from Florida State. Arnold has made significant strides in college, developing one of the best fastballs seen in years. Thanks to his unique low arm slot and excellent command, his fastball generates plenty of swings and misses in the upper part of the strike zone.

In addition to his standout fastball, Arnold throws a nasty sweeper breaking ball, though he’ll need to refine his changeup or add a cutter to round out his arsenal. The Mariners, who have a strong reputation for developing pitchers, are well-equipped to help Arnold maximize his potential. His ability to adapt and improve quickly makes him a great fit for Seattle’s system.

Breaking Down the MLB Top 5: 2025 Draft Projections 1

Rockies Focus on Tyler Bremner

The Colorado Rockies, picking fourth, are expected to choose Tyler Bremner, a right-handed pitcher from UC Santa Barbara. Bremner’s rise has been fueled by increased velocity and a diverse pitch mix that includes a bullet slider and a screwball-action changeup. Although he hasn’t logged a ton of innings in college, his athleticism and potential for growth make him an appealing choice.

Given the challenges of pitching at Coors Field, the Rockies have recently leaned towards selecting college pitchers who rely on command and pitches less affected by altitude. Bremner’s style fits this strategy well, and his upside as a frontline starter could be exactly what Colorado needs for the future.

Cardinals Consider Aiva Arquette at No. 5

Rounding out the top five, the St. Louis Cardinals are likely to select Aiva Arquette, a second baseman from Oregon State. Originally from Hawaii, Arquette has impressed scouts with his offensive skills and above-average contact ability. At 6-foot-4, he brings an unusual combination of size and athleticism to the infield.

Arquette’s raw power and knack for making consistent contact make him a valuable asset for the Cardinals. St. Louis has recently focused on drafting offense-oriented infielders, and Arquette’s profile fits their current priorities. If he continues to develop as expected, he could make a big impact on the Cardinals’ farm system and eventually their major league roster.

Draft Predictions and Future Impact

Though the draft is still months away, these early projections provide a glimpse into how the first round might unfold. As spring approaches, prospects will have opportunities to boost their rankings, potentially shifting the draft landscape. While the 2025 draft class is currently viewed as weaker than 2024’s, history shows that late-season surges can elevate the perceived strength of a class.

For the Nationals, landing the top pick is a significant opportunity to accelerate their rebuild. Whether they select Holliday or another standout prospect, this decision will shape their future. Meanwhile, teams like the Angels, Mariners, Rockies, and Cardinals are also poised to add impactful players, setting the stage for an intriguing lead-up to the 2025 MLB Draft.